I’m old enough to remember when SoulCycle was going to conquer the fitness world(and grow forever). That was in 2017. Now they are closing locations. $PTON https://t.co/cYQCi3Aii8
— Diogenes (@WallStCynic) November 26, 2019
(2) We estimate that SoulCycle has peaked at about 500,000 active riders, who average about $40/month in revenue to SC. But $PTON’s US TAM is 12MM subs. Got that?
— Diogenes (@WallStCynic) November 26, 2019
But what about all the adjacent industries they can tap? Online dating, light manufacturing, and printing graphic tees? If WeWork showed us anything, you can’t put a multiple on hopes and dreams. Or tell them apart from delusions if you’re SoftBank.
— Gamma Bomber (@LongneckCapital) November 26, 2019
All workout/gym concepts have a lifespan of a couple of years
— Brian Marino (@byron_marino) November 27, 2019
They all go broke. They all go away. Then someone with money to burn either buys them and gives them a face lift or starts a newer and better version. I will just watch another one bite the dust.
— John Roy Shafi (@john_shafi) November 26, 2019
Don’t get me wrong, $PTON will sell just fine this Christmas. But at 9x revenues and with 240MM(!) shares coming off lockup in February, it has to do well. And next Christmas, and the Christmas after that, etc.
— Diogenes (@WallStCynic) December 1, 2019
And for those of you who weren’t around in 1994(all of you), I give you Fitbit: It peaked in 2015 shortly after going public at roughly 5x revenues and 30x EBITDA. It is being bought out , down 85%, at less than one times revenue, despite having sold millions of units. $FIT $PTON pic.twitter.com/J1AXTjRbvA
— Diogenes (@WallStCynic) December 2, 2019