Golden Hammer | #mentalmodels

Golden Hammer: When someone, usually an intellectual who has gained a cultish following for popularizing a concept, becomes so drunk with power he thinks he can apply that concept to everything. Every mention of this concept should be accompanied by a picture of @nntaleb. — Gurwinder (@G_S_Bhogal) February 6, 2020

Belief Bias | #mentalmodels

Belief Bias: Arguments we'd normally reject for being idiotic suddenly seem perfectly logical if they lead to conclusions we approve of. In other words, we judge an argument’s strength not by how strongly it supports the conclusion but by how strongly *we* support the conclusion. — Gurwinder (@G_S_Bhogal) February 6, 2020

Limited Hangout | #mentalmodels

Limited Hangout: A common tactic by journos & politicians of revealing intriguing but relatively innocent info to satisfy curiosity and prevent discovery of more incriminating info. E.g. a politician accused of snorting cocaine may confess to having smoked marijuana at college. — Gurwinder (@G_S_Bhogal) February 6, 2020

Condorcet Paradox | #mentalmodels

Condorcet Paradox: a special instance of Simpson’s paradox applied to elections, in which a populace prefers candidate A to candidate B, candidate B to C, and yet candidate C to A. This occurs because the majority that favors C is misleadingly divided among different groups. — Gurwinder (@G_S_Bhogal) February 6, 2020

Cultural Parasitism | #mentalmodels

Cultural Parasitism: An ideology parasitizes the mind, changing the host’s behavior so they spread it to other people. Therefore, a successful ideology (the only kind we hear about) is not configured to be true; it is configured only to be easily transmitted and easily believed. — Gurwinder (@G_S_Bhogal) February 6, 2020

Emergence | #mentalmodels

Emergence: When many simple objects interact with each other, they can form a system that has qualities that the objects themselves don’t. Examples: neurons creating consciousness, traders creating the stock-market, simple mathematical rules creating “living” patterns. — Gurwinder (@G_S_Bhogal) February 6, 2020

Ergodicity | #mentalmodels

Ergodicity: A die rolled 100 times has equal probabilities to 100 dice rolled once; rolling a die is “ergodic”. But if the die gets chipped after 10 throws so it’s likelier to roll 4, then 1 die 100 times =/= 100 dice once (non-ergodic). Many treat non-ergodic systems as ergodic. — Gurwinder (@G_S_Bhogal) February 6, […]